Elements for Life

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livelihood. Indian agriculture is monsoon dependent, with over

60 per cent of the crop area under rain-fed agriculture that is

highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Given the

lack of resources, and access to technology and finances, many

countries in the Asia region presently have limited capacity to

develop and adopt strategies to reduce their vulnerability to

changes in climate.

In India, apart from the strong seasonality of rainfall (with

most of the rainfall occurring during a span of three months

during mid-June to mid-September), there are remarkable vari-

ations within the season from one year to another. Such

variations produce extremes in seasonal anomalies resulting

in large-scale droughts and floods, and also short-period precip-

itation extremes in the form of heavy rainstorms or prolonged

breaks. The Indian climate is also marked by cold waves during

winter in the north, and heat waves during the pre-monsoon

season over most parts of the country. Tropical cyclones, affect-

ing the coastal regions through heavy rainfall, high wind speeds

and storm surges, often leave behind widespread destruction

and loss of life, and constitute a major natural disaster associ-

ated with climatic extremes. Indeed, it is these extremes that

have the most visible impact on human activities and there-

fore, receive greater attention by all sections of the society.

Future projections with high-resolution regional climate

models indicate an all-round increase in temperatures, and a

general increase in rainfall during the monsoon season qual-

ified with large spatial variations. An overall decrease in the

number of rainy days over a major part of the country

coupled with an increase in the rainy day intensity can be

seen. The temperature projections indicate an increase

(maximum and minimum) of the order of 2-4 degrees

Centigrade over the southern region, which may exceed 4

degrees Centigrade over the northern region. Although this

summary of projected changes compiled in India’s National

Communication

come with caveats of large model uncer-

tainties, they do point to a future possibility of enhanced

extreme weather events.

Linkages between climate change and natural disasters

Adaptation refers to actions to help communities and ecosys-

tems cope with changing climatic conditions. The international

community has given a high priority to these measures, of

which disaster reduction is a crucial part. Reducing vulnera-

bility to climatic hazards today is essential to building future

resilience. We need to significantly strengthen our ability to

withstand the adverse effects of current and future natural

disasters, which are likely to be even more severe.

Although adaptation to climate change is a global issue, it is

particularly relevant to developing countries, as they are likely

to be the hardest hit by the effects of climate change. We must

evolve systems that raise the adaptive capacity of the most

vulnerable groups, through strategies for risk reduction and

effective response. As a large proportion of natural disasters

have meteorological causes, the national meteorological

services have a key role to play in building adaptive capacities

of nations. This significant and urgent role can however be

played by the meteorological services only if they get connected

to the users in a very intricate and sensitive manner – with

the clear recognition that ‘adaptation’ has to happen in these

communities. This means that the forecasts have to translate

into useful information that can be directly used in decision-

making.

There are several cases of extreme rainfall events in the recent

years that have lead to loss of lives and property in India. The

most significant of these was the Mumbai heavy rainfall event

of 26 July 2005, followed by similar incidents in Bangalore 24

October 2005 and Chennai and surroundings during 2-4

December 2005. All these cases occurred in densely populated

urban areas. Many more such examples can be quoted from all

over the globe – and perhaps are glimpses of the most plausi-

ble scenarios under the influence of climate change that we

may witness frequently in future.

These cases have brought

to our attention the need to look at heavy rainfall spells in

combination with the prevailing conditions under which they

occur.

In his observations on the Mumbai heavy rainfall event, R.

R. Kelkar highlighted: “Had Mumbai received the rainfall of

94.4 mm in a day a century ago, the severity of problems would

surely have been much less. The population of Greater Bombay,

now called Brihan Mumbai, was less than a million at the

beginning of the last century. The mid-century figure was

around three million. By 2001, the population had grown to

almost 12 million. The city has risen vertically, open spaces

have dwindled, the arterial roads cannot be widened any

further, smaller roads have become car parks, and the drainage

systems cannot keep pace with the ever-increasing needs of

the metropolis. Many people are literally living on the edge, in

areas that are known to be prone to landslides.”

The key message for the national weather services here is

that weather forecasts of the future cannot be stand-alone, but

must be presented with a context that makes them socially

relevant, and aids decision making. For this to happen, we

need to take an integrated approach that includes vulnerabil-

ity analysis and impact assessments.

Recent efforts in disaster management

Recognizing the importance and need for an effective disaster

preparedness framework, the Government of India has set up

VULNERABILITY

ASSESSMENTS

AND RISK ANALYSIS

ON A GEO SPATIAL

FRAMEWORK

IMPACT

ANALYSIS

MONITORING

AND EARLY

WARNING SYSTEMS

DECISION SUPPORT

SYSTEM FOR

DISASTER

MANAGEMENT

TARGETED ALERTS,

RISK REDUCTION,

APPROPRIATE

RESPONSE AND

RAPID RECOVERY –

MINIMIZE DAMAGES

R&D components that need to be integrated for an effective

Disaster Management System