Risk Returns

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] 47

Indonesia: improving investment

in communities for risk reduction

Sugeng Triutomo, Deputy Chief for Prevention and Preparedness, National Agency for Disaster Management, Indonesia

n Tuesday 26 October 2010 at 5.02 p.m. local time,

Merapi Volcano in Yogyakarta, Indonesia spewed out

clouds of pyroclastic materials (fluidized rocks and

gases). This marked the beginning of a series of eruptions of

varying intensities that lasted until mid-November and consti-

tuted the biggest volcanic event in 140 years. The 2010 eruption

differed from earlier ones in that it featured a vertical explo-

sion that ejected pyroclastic materials up to 7.5km high. Also,

although pyroclastic flow from Merapi usually only covers

areas around 4-5km from the peak, this time it travelled more

than 14km downstream. The eruption was estimated to have a

volcanic explosivity index (VEI) of 4.

Fortunately, the Center for Vulcanology and Mitigation of Geological

Hazards (PVMBG), the national institution tasked with managing

volcanic and other geological hazards, had ordered evacuation for

all people living in areas under 10km from the peak, starting from

25 October at 6 a.m. local time. Although the majority of people

living close to the mountain could be evacuated in time, thanks to

an existing early warning system and the courageous and tireless

efforts of emergency volunteers, the eruption claimed 386 lives and

made hundreds of people homeless. The damage and loss caused

amounted to around Rp4.23 trillion (about US$470 million).

With more than 300,000 people living in sub-districts directly

on its borders, Merapi is the most densely populated volcano in

the country. It is not surprising therefore that it has attracted much

attention from the central and regional governments, and from

scientists as well as non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and

community-based organizations (CBOs). Merapi is the first volcano

in Indonesia to benefit from a multi-stakeholder management group,

Forum Merapi, which brings together regional and local govern-

ments, academics, NGOs and CBOs to jointly implement disaster

risk reduction (DRR) programmes and activities. Merapi is also the

most researched volcano in Indonesia since the Dutch colonial era.

Still, after all these scientific endeavours and DRR initiatives, the

impact of the 2010 eruption cannot be considered as insignificant.

Grappling with lost development gains

Indonesia is a country struggling with the effects of many disasters.

The damage and loss caused by the Indian Ocean Aceh tsunami

of 2004 amounted to around Rp48 trillion. The Central Java and

Yogyakarta Earthquake of 2006 caused damage and loss costing

Rp29.1 trillion. Subsequent disasters include the Pangandaran

tsunami of 2006 (Rp1.3 trillion); the Jakarta Flood of 2007 (Rp5.2

trillion); the West Sumatra earthquake of 2009 (Rp21.6 trillion); the

Wasior flood of 2010 (Rp0.28 trillion); and the Mentawai tsunami

of 2010 (Rp0.35 trillion). The combined damage and

loss suffered by the country between the Aceh tsunami

and the latest Merapi eruption will amount to more

than Rp110 trillion (equivalent to US$12.2 billion).

Together with other smaller scale disasters in the same

period that were not so well documented, the total may

exceed Rp150 trillion (around US$16.6 billion). This

is a substantial sum of money for a developing country

like Indonesia.

Disasters have deprived Indonesia of many hard-won

development gains. With global climate change, increased

hydrometeorological-related hazards will further exac-

erbate the situation. Figure 1 shows the distribution of

disasters and victims per type of incident from 1815 to

2011.

It can be seen that in Indonesia, hydrometeorolog-

ical disasters predominate. Also, the economic damage

caused by climate-related events is worse than that that

caused by geological and biological disasters, particu-

larly if we consider that wildfire disasters are closely

related to climate change. Data from the United Nations

International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR)

show that from 1980 to 2008, Indonesia suffered a total

economic loss of US$21,219,450,000. The biggest cause

was wildfire (US$9,329,000), followed by earthquake

and tsunami (US$8,962,726), flood (US$2,372,789) and

volcano (US$344,190).

Besides the large number of lives already lost and

properties damaged by disasters, Indonesian people

still face risks from multiple hazards. UNISDR statis-

tics show that in terms of human exposure, for tsunami

Indonesia ranks first out of 265 countries, with

5,402,239 people exposed; for landslide it ranks first

out of 162 countries, with 197,372 people exposed; for

earthquake it ranks third out of 153 countries, with

11,056,806 people exposed; for flood it ranks sixth out

of 162 countries, with 1,101,507 people exposed; and

for drought it ranks thirty-sixth out of 184 countries,

with 2,029,350 people exposed.

In terms of economic exposure, for tsunami, Indonesia

ranks fifth out of 265 countries, with US$3.46 billion in

GDP potentially lost to tsunami-related disaster events;

for earthquake, it ranks eleventh out of 153 countries,

at US$79.13 billion; for landslide, it ranks eleventh out

of 162 countries, at US$0.84 billion; and for flood, it

ranks twentieth out of 162 countries, with US$1.05

billion in GDP potentially lost.

2011