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Roshydromet. This is an invaluable natural resource for the
economy – a social product, whose general and economic
significance is universally recognized.
At present, the success of weather forecasting and warnings
reaches 85 per cent to 90 per cent. Routine use of Roshydromet’s
forecast information products by sectors of the economy enables
them essentially to avoid weather-related losses. Forecast infor-
mation allows for timely preparations for the impact of the
weather, in order to reduce the vulnerability of the industrial
sphere and its infrastructure. Even more pertinent is special-
ized hydrometeorological information support, which is specific
to the individual or address and meets the demands and needs
of users in the territories of federal subjects.
According to the assessments of Russian specialists, the
reduction of weather-related losses for each sector of the
economy ranges from 10 to 85 per cent of the maximum possi-
ble losses. On average, the coefficient of prevented losses for
the economy as a whole is 40 per cent, and prevented losses
total 23 to 24 billion roubles. This solves the issue of the
conceptual unity of reducing meteorological vulnerability and
the ensuring hydrometeorological safety, which contributes
dynamically to the sustainable development of society. It there-
fore follows that hydrometeorological safety is not only
component of Russia’s economic security, but also of the
country’s national security as a whole.
At present, it is generally possible to assess the order of
magnitude of use of hydrometeorological resources. This is
aided by newly developed joint economic and meteorological
models of optimal adaptation, selection of optimal regulations
for activities, and assessment of the economic usefulness of
hydrometeorological forecasting. These modern mathematical
solutions are employed in operational synoptic practice. By
way of example, over the past five years, the value of prevented
meteorological losses is at least 47 billion roubles. The Russian
NHMS has therefore made a substantial contribution to
preserving the economic wealth of the country.
Such sectors of the economy as agriculture, fuel and energy,
transport and HCS are the most liable to the weather condi-
tions. In each of these sectors, the approach to the use of
hydrometeorological information, particularly weather fore-
casts, is far from rational, economic, or prudent. Often, the
decisions and actions taken are far from adequate given the
expected weather conditions.
Hydrometeorological information support, directed to the
specific nature and needs of each individual sector – in other
words, specialized hydrometeorological information support
– is regarded as invaluable for saving economy’s material
resources and ensuring the safety of industrial and other activ-
ity. Moreover, the development of specialized
hydrometeorological information support enables economic
losses to be minimized. The NHMS of Russia therefore meets
social and economic needs.
However, in many cases, use of hydrometeorological fore-
casting is still too basic. The protective measures taken by users
of hydrometeorological information are inadequate in relation
to the expected effects of the weather and climate. An intuitive
approach based on past industrial experience or the current
weather patterns is not always effective. At present, scientific
findings that guide users to best effect are often ignored.
Roshydromet research establishments have developed
methods for optimal adaptation by users to expected weather
conditions, selection of a optimal number of solutions (level of
protective measures), assessment of the economic effects and
the success of using meteorological forecasts. All these modern
developments must be employed to their full capacity by the
organizations of Roshydromet and by users of hydrometeoro-
logical information.
The Roshydromet system has a well-defined assessment
system in place throughout the territory of Russia. Thus, the
economic impact (approximately – the prevented losses) of
the use of hydrometeorological information in 2004 was 11.4
billion roubles (80.6 per cent of the effect occurs in the most
weather-dependent sectors – agriculture, transport, energy,
HCS), and in 2005 it was 13.9 billion roubles (80.4 per cent
respectively). These reductions are confirmed by the specific
users of hydrometeorological information. However, it must
be noted that the existing method of evaluating the economic
impact has not yet taken on a interdepartmental character.
The development of specialized hydrometeorological infor-
mation support in the current economic circumstances requires
a more dynamic approach to taking up market methods for
conducting business, ensuring greater guarantees of the quality
of hydrometeorological products on the one hand, and on the
other, more effective application of these products by its users.
This will lead to a maximum reduction of economic losses.
Thus, hydrometeorological information support is a reliable
State mechanism for reducing meteorological vulnerability and
consequently, ensuring social protection and the economic
potential of the country.
Roshydromet’s programme of technical renovation and
research and production development constitutes the basis for
a further reduction in hydrometeorological vulnerability and all
the negative consequences of adverse weather conditions and
hazardous hydrometeorological conditions. However, at the
same time, partnerships between State and private entities are
not ruled out for investment in regional programmes. Thus,
overall, the following is envisaged:
• Assurance of the safety of the population in their living
and working environments
• Preservation of the physical state of the technosphere,
industry, and infrastructure
• Development of energy and resource reduction
• Efficient functioning of industry.
All this will be possible once the following fundamental issues
of meteorology and economic meteorology have been resolved.
First issue
– To develop new and perfect existing methods of
forecasting meteorological values and weather phenomena on
the basis of which, the introduction of highly effective hydrom-
eteorological information products is envisaged.
Second issue
– In accordance with the expansion of the proce-
dures for concluding General agreements with ministries and
departments, to plan, introduce, and implement in economic
practice the aforementioned methods for optimal use of hydrom-
eteorological forecasts. In addition, resolution of this issue also
requires the development of an Inventory of sector-specific
hydrometeorological losses, and in accordance with the estab-
lished research methods their formal presentation in matrix form.
It will simply not be possible to secure new successes in the use
of specialized forecasts without setting up such a mechanism.
Given that hazardous synoptic processes grip an increasing
number of countries simultaneously, the development of this
kind of inventory may require joint international efforts in the
search for the determining factors.
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