Future Perfect

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] 140

ustainability

olicies

, P

rogrammes

and

their

conomic

mpact

Within this context, the implications for Africa are

two-fold. First and foremost, Africa needs to ‘climate-

proof’ its development by managing existing climate

risks and adapting to climate change. The continent is

already highly vulnerable to current climatic variabil-

ity, as the prevalence of weather and climate related

disasters shows.

Due to the underlying environmen-

tal and socioeconomic conditions, hazards frequently

translate into disasters. This adaptation deficit needs

to be addressed by scaling up preventive disaster

risk management efforts. Livelihoods and sensitive

economic sectors – particularly health, agriculture and

infrastructure – also need to be prepared for climatic

changes that are likely to hinder their development.

Secondly, Africa’s development will take place in an

increasingly carbon-constrained world if dangerous

levels of climate change are to be avoided. The devel-

opment pathways Africa chooses will influence in part

the climate change impacts it will suffer. Historically,

Africa’s per capita and aggregate greenhouse gas emis-

sions have been low compared to other economic

regions. It is clear that other countries need to take the

lead in reducing emissions. However, significant emis-

sion reductions are needed if global warming is to be

limited to 2

The energy infrastructure decisions

Africa takes today will have repercussions on its future

carbon intensity. Through its natural resource wealth,

Africa also holds an important key to keeping carbon

out of the atmosphere. With international support and

in recognition of the principle of differentiated respon-

Gambia, Ghana, Senegal and Morocco, the combined impact of the

recent food, fuel and financial crises has also led to a reversal of the

gains made in alleviating absolute poverty. Persistent high levels of

rural poverty and the working poor (people who are unable to rise

above the poverty line despite being employed) remain.

These facts

show that current growth is vulnerable to external economic shocks

and often bypasses large segments of society.

Environmental sustainability is particularly important to African

livelihoods and economic activities, which are heavily dependent on

natural resources. Land degradation, excessive extraction of ground-

water, and air and water pollution pose threats to human health as well

as undermining the ability of ecosystems to deliver essential goods

and services. The continent’s population is projected to increase from

roughly 1 billion people today to about 1.6 billion people by 2030.

conjunction with urbanization trends and a rising global population,

there will be further pressure on Africa’s natural resources.

Climate change is superimposed on these challenges, multiply-

ing existing risks while introducing new ones, such as shifts in

vector-borne diseases to areas with no prior experience of them.

The African Development Bank (AfDB), together with nine other

bilateral and multilateral agencies, highlighted early on in an

inter-agency report that climate change is a development problem

that will constrain progress towards and beyond the Millennium

Development Goals if no remedial measures are taken.

The

report emphasized the importance of mainstreaming adaptation

to climate change into development planning, recognizing that

adaptation is a necessary complementary measure to mitigation.

In a nutshell, the challenge for humankind is to adapt to climatic

changes that can no longer be avoided and to avoid changes that

societies cannot adapt to.

Landscape, Tunisia, Northern Africa